Tinubu and the futile 2027 opposition project
By Abraham Ogbodo
THIS venture of taking down Tinubu in 2027 does not sound profitable to me. I don’t know how the planners wish to achieve it anyway. But before he died in 2020, my father used to advise me to only engage in fruitful business. If he were to be around, I would have gone back to tell him that, Papa, all the businesses in Nigeria, except politics, illegal mining of solid minerals like gold in Zamfara, oil theft in the Niger Delta, kidnapping and naked banditry, have become unprofitable. Feel free to ask anyone who is doing any business outside this range, including Aliko Dangote, to verify what I am saying.
Therefore, if it is in the context of politics being among the few thriving businesses in today’s Nigeria that the company to purportedly seize Aso Rock from Tinubu in 2027 has been incorporated outside the Corporate Affairs Commission, I will understand and even encourage the shareholders to double efforts. After all, wealth acquisition has also been democratised in Nigeria. It comes even in more ways than hard work. It is not like Christian theology where the way to heaven is just one narrow and rough path.
However, if what is currently afloat is politics in the strict sense of creating the attendant intrigues for power grab, I would sincerely wish to advise the players, like my father advised me, to recalibrate and refocus. People have started travelling up and down to Ota, Minna and other places for meetings to plan the take-over of Aso Rock in 2027 as if it is Ojota motor-park in Lagos that they want to take over. Well, the Bible [and I guess the Qu’ran does too] teaches us that with God, all things are possible. This is true.
It is also true that a chunk of Christian and Islamic theology underscores the imperativeness of individual responsibility in the divine scheme. It means the grace is not as gratuitous as we think.
That God or Allah does not descend into the earthly arena of play to fix what we can fix as umpires and players.
Let’s get it straight. Is it the same Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is also called Asiwaju, Jagaban, Senator, ex-Governor and now President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria that these people are talking of dislodging from the most privileged position in 2027? Or some look-alike of him or a fellow, who happens, in an unusual coincidence, to share the same first, middle and last names with him, that is in contemplation? I want to add that it is not today that the efforts to stop Tinubu in his track started. For instance, his emergence as the candidate of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) in the 1999 governorship election in Lagos State was not without a subtle battle. He won the cold war against the more formidable late Funsho Williams.
Within the Southwest in the 1999 – 2003 dispensation, governorship tickets, as well as the presidential and other tickets of the AD, were by affirmation and not competition. The tickets were for Afenifere to allocate as it deemed fit and not for the strongest contenders to grab. This was against the backdrop of the coordinated struggles, especially in the South West, to dislodge the military after its criminal annulment of the 1993 presidential election which the late Chief M.K.O Abiola won, and return the country to a democratic rule. And so, when democracy finally berthed in 1999, it became payback time for people who did more than the ordinary to contain the military and bring about democracy.
I wouldn’t know how the ranking was done. But Tinubu, rightly or wrongly, was put in this class of high pro-democracy performers. He was said to have contributed handsomely to the funding of the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO), the arrow-head of the pro-democracy struggles while on a self-imposed exile in the United States to escape Abacha’s persecution. Accordingly, the sentiments flowed in his advantage. Afenifere also believed that compensating Tinubu with the Lagos State governorship was the least that could be done for a seemingly proven Yoruba patriot.
Meanwhile, nothing about Tinubu betrayed his inner strength or thinking. The decoy was perfect. The high degree of Machiavellian ruthlessness and invincibility in political battles that has been on display since his coronation as Governor of Lagos State by Afenifere, was not in any way foreseen. Even so, Afenifere had acted in utmost good faith. It was just that Tinubu had his game plan properly worked out. He wanted to become an emperor and needed the 1999 political take-off grant by Afenifere and nothing more, to conquer and conquer. He had stooped very low, including accepting to be yoked by a non-align female deputy just to earn the grant. I guess, he would have sworn too, after that ex-perience, to work hard to retain all the ace cards and increase his confidence in the unfolding game. He understands that to remain a king forever, the king must kill the kingmaker. He didn’t like the idea of being called to order by any commanding voice. Only the voice of Afenifere had that commanding tone. One way to tone down Afenifere is to cause it to replicate a Renewal version and other versions that can detract from the original body.
That was successfully achieved, touching off a radical reversal of roles. Instead of Afenifere dictating to Tinubu, as it was before his inauguration as Governor in 1999, it has been the other way round. It was also scripted for the old and renewed versions of the organisation not to agree on a common position regarding the political ambition of Ti-nubu. If the old says no, the new must say yes and vice versa. And since it is the same Afenifere that is manifesting in more than one way like the Holy Trinity, Tinubu usually follows the manifestation that feeds his purpose. For instance, in 2023, he did not follow the old group which said it was the turn of the South East to produce the president of Nigeria. He went with the renewal version whose voice sounded sweet; saying he could come as President after Obasanjo and Osinbajo and the heavens would not fall.
He has always taken a step at a time in his journey to the very top. In 2003, Obasanjo, who became President in 1999 without home support, needed to cultivate one in the 2003 electoral outing. The deal, on one hand, was for the PDP to have its way in the presidential election so that Obasanjo could become a prophet with honour at home. On the other hand, and by way of reciprocating the nice gesture by the AD, President Obasanjo would hold back the deployment of the well known and accepted federal might in national politics, from creating upsets in the governorship election in the six South West States of Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ekiti and Ondo. In summary, it was agreed that the eagle would perch and the six kites in the Southwest would perch too.
But the deal was not that transparent. Tinubu who is also deft in con artistry, understands when a dealer is up to no good. He saw through the OBJ scheme and pulled back. When the owner identifies and takes back his stolen goat at the point of sale in the open market, the thief does well to remain silent. Obasanjo allowed the scheme to run without Lagos. In the end, Tinubu became the only man standing in the PDP-induced tsunami that swept through the South West in 2003.This was the first dependable signal that the Jagaban was not ordinary in the game of intrigues.
Both Tinubu and Obasanjo left office in 2007. While one went into gathering and building a political empire, the other went into scattering and destroying even the little he had spent time and effort to built. In eight years, Tinubu was able to recover the fallen South West for a good bargain with Muhammadu Buhari in 2015. On the flip side, Obasanjo, in eight years, was able to mobilise like-minds like Atiku Abubakar, Bukola Saraki, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Rotimi Amaechi and others to destroy the PDP. He even made a big spectacle in Ota of the destruction of his PDP membership card. Tinubu spent time outside power; between 2007 and 2023, a whole 16 years, working for more power. And he got what he worked for. That is what my late father called profitable trade which people should engage in and not the type of fruitless venture that some people are planning for 2027.
I am saying everyone knew where Tinubu was headed but no one could stop him. For decades, he postured as a democrat, progressive and activist but even Afenifere could not exercise the due diligence to unmask him. When he was just a mere unprofiled pro-democracy activist without any form of lethal powers, he could not be stopped from becoming Governor of Lagos State. And after finishing as governor, those who claim to own Lagos, including Chief Olabode George, could not stop the foreigner from Osun State from continuing as Governor through proxies till date.
That was not all. The Buhari Presidency that Tinubu decisively assisted in creating, never wanted him to succeed Buhari. But the same Tinubu, in the build up to 2023, went to Abeokuta to state, clear and loud, and without any fear of being contradicted, the Emilokan Project. The APC did not say it was not the turn of Tinubu. President Buhari couldn’t invoke some executive order as President Trump is currently doing in America, to stop Tinubu in his track. Instead, everybody marked time until Tinubu contested and won the presidential elections according to INEC and the Supreme Court.
When he was all cash without power, he could not be stopped. Is it now that he has both cash and power and the power of life and death that people want to stop him? His names, even till now, spells doubt on account of the many stories of crime around him. He is this and that! Yet after losing immunity as Governor, the Attorney-General of the Federation under a PDP government did not file a criminal charge against him. Also, none of the Attorneys-General in the 36 states did anything to reinforce the public perception.
Persons and institutions that should conduct a proper character audit slept off, while Tinubu remained awake for16 good years, scheming for the realisation of May 29, 2023 in his life.
The worst that ever happened to him, was his appearance at the Code of Conduct Tribunal to answer charges of false declaration of assets. He scaled the hurdle and re-entered Bourdillon, Lagos, from Abuja, as the real lion, victor, conqueror, emperor and champion. The Federal Government under President Goodluck Jonathan was boxed into an underdog and appeared diminished in the ensuing optics.
In the 1999 Class of Governors, Tinubu stands very tall and alone. Nobody comes close, except, perhaps, Chief James Onanefe Ibori of Delta State, who, in spite of his post-office travails, has managed to hold together part of his political clan. Others have been on a steady downward curve of devaluation; moving between being senators, ministers and errand boys to the executive at the Federal and State levels. And so, if you ask me, I will give it to Tinubu. Overall, he has exercised a superior acumen over the Nigerian State and its agents. He has worked so hard to convert tall names and his erstwhile principals into his die-hard fans. Pa Adebisi Akande, Pa Segun Osoba and even the respected Professor do not or cannot say no to him. I think he should be applauded.
Aziza is the unparalled forest spirit in Urhobo cosmology. No entity contests the ownership of the forest with it. Tinubu has strengthened into the Aziza of national politics. He should just be allowed to dissipate in eight years instead of incurring his wrath. Aziza also loves roaming large in incredible strides. It moves in a hurricane, tornado or any other fearsome storm and can cover kilometres just in a stride. Nothing stands in its way. It brings down everything including houses in its path. Those who must obstruct Aziza must invite the obo (the native doctor) to offer a sacrifice that would be accepted for Aziza to stride over built-up areas without wrecking destruction. This is where we are with Tinubu. It is same as saying that if you fail to uproot the Iroko when it is unknown, you will take sacrifices to it when it becomes known and established.
